Without a doubt, the most dramatic international event in the first half of 2011 has been the wave of uprisings and revolutions that has swept across the Arab world. From Tunisia to Syria and from Egypt to Bahrain, masses of demonstrators have defied their dictatorial governments and openly called for the ouster of their regimes.
Since then, longstanding Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak has also been deposed, while the dictators of Libya, Yemen and even Syria may soon follow suit. The unexpected success of these revolts have left Western commentators scratching their heads and scrambling for explanations and predictions. Most notably, many commentators have started to ponder the consequences of the uprisings for Israel and the United States.
Some have rather cynically argued that the revolutions will change absolutely nothing, and that new local tyrants will emerge to replace their disgraced predecessors, probably with firm military backing. Indeed, this reflects the current state of affairs in Egypt and Tunisia, where army officers have emerged in order to facilitate a “democratic transition”.
Others have grimly predicted a rise of radical Islamist sentiment across the Arab world, soon to be accompanied by the establishment of Muslim theocracies in the post-revolutionary states. This seems a genuine danger in Egypt, where the Muslim Brotherhood continues to gain in strength and popularity, and Syria, where the protests against Bashar Al-Assad are spearheaded by the country’s repressed Sunni majority, long a hotbed of Islamist fervor.
All of these developments bode ill for the region’s democratic future. But even if the naysayers are proven incorrect, what can we expect from Arab democracies? After all, democracy differs greatly from region to region. We can all see that democracy as practiced in Canada, Israel and the United States is marked by different traditions, different political cultures and thus, different results. How will democracy look with its shiny, new Arabic brand label?
The best way to chart the future of Arab democracy is to examine democratic states already present in the region. Unfortunately, precious few currently exist. Lebanon is officially democratic and holds generally free and fair elections, but its unique and tumultuous “consociational” form of government, with entrenched roles and powers for the country’s myriad religions and sects, proves a poor model for other nations to follow. A better example would be Iraq, which gained a fresh democratic start after the U.S.-led invasion in 2003.
After decades of rule by autocrats and tyrants like Saddam Hussein, Iraq has successfully held no less than five national elections for various offices following a constitutional referendum that established democracy in 2005. This is both good and bad: on the one hand, holding fair elections is no easy task, especially in a country historically lacking the infrastructure and mechanisms for doing so. On the other hand, these repeated elections are a sign of political gridlock, which was exemplified by the five months required to cobble together a coalition government after the most recent election just last year.
Another problem facing Iraqi democracy is an absence of what we would consider liberal democratic norms, such as freedom of speech and the renunciation of violence. Democracy is about more than just ballots and polling stations – if not all sides respect the democratic process, parties will soon turn to violence in order to achieve their ends. The most obvious manifestation of this phenomenon is Iraq’s notoriously poor security situation, with suicide bombings and political assassinations coming a dime a dozen. Thankfully, order was restored after a US Armed Forces “surge” in 2007, although the imminent withdrawal of American combat troops could herald a return to endemic violence.
Just as worrying, if lacking terrorism’s headline-grabbing power, is the lack of civility and respect and the use of sectarian slurs in Iraqi political discourse. Translated clips from the Middle East Media Research Institute (MEMRI) show us first-hand the level of hostility common in the political sphere across the Arab world.
In one clip featuring a debate about the execution of Saddam Hussein, the Sunni and Shi’ite panelists completely refuse to engage the arguments of their fellow. Worse yet, the debate soon descends into personal attacks and even death threats, with the Sunni politician calling his Shi’ite counterpart a “Persian shoe”, causing the Shi’ite the abruptly leave the studio. When he returns, his Sunni rival threatens to kill him for insulting “the Islamic martyr Saddam Hussein”. For all the gory details, click here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fyt8JqH5NJM.
The magic of the Internet also brings us a debate between a Sunni journalist and a Kurdish spokesman concerning the constitutional status of Kurdistan, which promises to be a rather dry affair. Instead, the Sunni Arab advocate casually engages in Holocaust denial and accuses the Kurds of being in cahoots with the Mossad, the Israeli intelligence agency. To catch all the fuss, click here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=afBaqY2m6aA&feature=related.
In the most shocking incident, the participants abandon any sense of civility and choose to leave the realm of enlightened discourse altogether. In a clip little more than a month old, another debate over the legacy of Saddam Hussein goes awry. One commentator actually sucker punches the other in full view of the camera, leading to a desultory off-screen brawl. Ironically, the scuffle takes place on a political show entitled “The Democratic Club”. To witness the mayhem, click here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZsrS3r1ZlTs.
The Arab youths that have poured onto the streets of Tunis, Cairo and Damascus have filled the hearts of Westerners with hope and joy, spreading hopes of a “democratic wave” that will cascade across the region. But amidst all the euphoria, it is critical to recognize that democracy is not a one-way ticket to utopia. Democracy will not will not bring economic growth overnight. It will not bring security. It will not lead to a new-found civility, nor will it heal age-old sectarian wounds. Arab democracy is not a panacea. It is the road less traveled, and with good reason; it is a road fraught with difficulty and danger.
* Winnipegger Aidan Fishman has completed his first year at the University of Toronto studying International Relations and Middle Eastern Studies.
